News Summary

California is experiencing a significant decline in eastbound international container volume due to the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Container volumes have fallen to their lowest level in six months, with a 5% drop from the previous week and a 10% decrease compared to the four-week rolling average. The impact of steep tariffs and trade slowdowns is felt across the logistics sector, affecting California’s economy and inventory levels of major retailers. Experts predict potential price increases and reduced product availability for U.S. consumers in the coming months.

California is facing a significant decline in eastbound international container volume from Southern California, as the ongoing U.S.-China trade war continues to take its toll on the logistics sector. During the week ending May 18, 2025, eastbound container volume fell to its lowest level in six months, marking a 5% decrease from the previous week and a 10% decline when compared to the four-week rolling average.

This downturn comes as a direct result of steep tariffs imposed on imports from China, with some tariffs reaching as high as 145% on certain goods. According to data from RailState, international container volumes on eastbound trains have dropped by 26.3% compared to the peak week observed from March 3-9, 2025. This spike earlier in March was driven by importers hastily shipping goods to avoid the initial tariff increases.

The U.S. and China agreed to a temporary 90-day truce, during which tariffs on most Chinese goods were reduced to 30%. Experts now anticipate a potential surge in import volumes as companies may rush to rebuild their inventories during this brief reprieve from elevated tariffs.

Container Volume Trends

RailState monitors various container sizes on the BNSF Railway and Union Pacific main lines. Following the earlier March peak, the volume of twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) sharply declined, down by 15,000 TEUs as the initial “beat the tariff” shipping frenzy came to an end. Since then, overall TEU volumes have diminished to approximately two-thirds of those earlier peaks.

Looking ahead, the Port of Los Angeles anticipates a 35% decrease in arrivals, with cargo volumes from China significantly ceasing and a reduction in incoming shipments from Southeast Asia. Current forecasts indicate a drop of 28.6% in cargo volumes to 85,486 TEUs in the following weeks and nearly 33% to 74,925 TEUs as ships continue to arrive.

Economic Impact

The impact of these tariffs and the trade slowdown extends beyond the ports, affecting the trade and logistics industries that contribute nearly $300 billion to California’s local economy. In March, the Port of Los Angeles recorded a 15% year-over-year decrease in TEUs. This marked the fourth consecutive month of decline. Major retailers are reporting limited inventory supplies, with some indicating only a six-to-eight-week stock level, potentially leading to future shortages for consumers.

Although the recent tariff reductions might ease some burdens temporarily, retailers—especially smaller businesses—are already experiencing the pressure of the ongoing situation. The trade sector is critical to the region, supporting nearly 2 million jobs in Southern California, and experts warn that without significant policy changes, both consumers and manufacturers will have to make challenging decisions in the coming months.

Future Considerations

The future implications of this decline forecast potential price increases and a reduced availability of products for U.S. consumers as supply chain disruptions persist. As the trade war and tariff conditions evolve, both importers and consumers will closely monitor developments that will influence their purchasing capabilities in the fluctuating market.